NFL Thanksgiving predictions: A trio of Turkey Day player props
Few days are better on the NFL calendar than Thanksgiving Day, and the league is treating us to a trio of intriguing games this year featuring elite skill-position stars — though at least one of them is facing a tricky spot on short rest.
Here are three of our favorite prop bets to target ahead of Thursday’s action:
Josh Allen over 0.5 interceptions at -115 (BetMGM)
I know Allen played a clean game in the Bills’ win over the Browns last week, but I’m not convinced that he’s over the turnover woes that plagued him even before his recent injury.
The preseason MVP favorite ranks second in the league in interceptions (10) and has thrown at least one pick in five of his last seven games, including three straight games with multiple interceptions before Sunday. Now he’s facing his shortest rest of the season ahead of Thursday’s kickoff, which only exacerbates an already worrisome elbow issue.
This Lions’ defense isn’t elite, by any means, but it ranks above average in interceptions (eight) and has picked off at least one pass in half of its games this season. All the signs point to Allen having a decent shot at throwing another one here, which makes this an obvious play at a near-even price.
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Tony Pollard over 67.5 rushing yards at -115 (BetMGM)
Why in the world is everyone — including bookmakers — so low on Tony Pollard? The Cowboys’ electric tailback has rushed for at least 80 yards in four straight games and burned this Giants defense for 105 rushing yards in Week 3, yet he’s still dealing at a price better reserved for teammate Ezekiel Elliott (60.6 ypg).
That’s nonsense given how well the fourth-year back is playing in a contract year. Since Week 6, Pollard ranks sixth across the entire league in yards per game (89.8) and second in yards per carry (6.6), trailing only quarterback Justin Fields (7.8) on a per-rush basis. That number would be even higher if it counted Pollard’s 109 receiving yards last week, most of which came after the catch.
The issue for Pollard has always been volume, but he’s seen double-digit carries in each of his last five games and matched Elliott in carries (15) a week ago. There’s a changing of the guard in Dallas, and the young gun should have little issue hitting this mark against one of the NFL’s worst run defenses.
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Justin Jefferson over 88.5 receiving yards at -115 (BetMGM)
This feels like a dramatic overreaction to Jefferson’s 33-yard output last week, which was one yard shy of the team lead on a day where nothing went right for Minnesota.
That was clearly an anomaly for Jefferson, who ranks second in the NFL in receiving yards per game (109.3) and was averaging a ridiculous 135.7 yards over his previous six games before last week’s clunker. He finished with at least six catches and 98 yards in all six of those games, including a monster 193-yard effort in Buffalo two weeks ago.
The Patriots’ pass defense ranks among the best in the league, though some of that comes from facing Sam Ehlinger and Zach Wilson (twice) over the last three games. Jefferson is easily the best player that New England has seen in weeks, if not all year, and he only needs to deliver 80% of his regular production to cash here in a prime-time spot.